Modelling Tourist Movements and Trends in the City of Edinburgh
WDF Apted Dissertation.pdf (8.263Mb)
Apted, William D.F.
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Abstract There is a great deal of interest, socioeconomically, in knowing the patterns and trends of the movements of groups of people, including the probability of where they are likely to move based on where they are currently located. The ability to predict and define the most probable movement of a large numbers of people within a cityscape can be of great benefit in providing data on which cities can be adapted to help accommodate and manage people en masse. This includes aspects which could have a direct influence on tourists, such as helping to know where to provide advice, help or additional information, as well as providing information on best locations for marketing, by having areas that promote activities, products and events. This project aims to look at the methodology of implementing Markov Chains to model tourist movements within the City of Edinburgh, looking at the 17 most popular tourist sites near the heart of the city. Focusing on a city wide scale, different applicable representations of tourist movement will be investigated and mapping of the data developed from the model used to gain a visual insight into the movement patterns within Edinburgh. This study showed that the use of Markov chains and topographic modelling can be a valuable aid to identify the probability of tourist movements between tourist attractions, based on current location, and the volume of tourists using different routes between them. This information would enable better decisions in a wide range of areas including for example where to locate other attractions or public amenities, advertising, focused maintenance of route and where investment can be made to improve the overall tourist experience and encourage repeat visits to the city.