Earthquake Hazard Analysis for Turkey's Thracian Byzantine Aqueduct Bridges
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Turkey is a seismically active region expecting a sizeable (7.5 magnitude) earthquake in the coming years. Byzantine aqueduct bridges in Thrace may be particularly at risk due to their age, proximity to active faults, and prior damage by earthquakes and other factors. This paper is an effort to quantify the expected results of seismic action on a subsection of the 4th and 5th century Byzantine aqueducts from Luka Dere (K17.1) to Keçigerme (K30 and K30.1). Using ESRI ArcGIS, the influences of geology, geomorphology, landslide capability, and general seismic hazard were weighed creating a ‘hazard surface;’ an augmented cost surface. The analysis shows that the aqueduct bridges in the most danger are located in the southeast region of the study area, while bridges to the northwest tended to be in less danger. The results of this project can be used to lead a program that hopes to conserve major archaeological structures, giving guidance as to which bridges may need more attention both now and in the future. In addition, this methodology can be used by archaeologists attempting to define hazard for any site as long as the hazard can be quantified within a spatial data set.