How GIS and fire indices can be used in developing a fire prediction model for Scotland

Abstract

This project looks at how GIS and the six fire indices from the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (FWI) could be used to aid in developing a fire prediction model for Scotland. Information on land cover type, elevation, slope, aspect, and distance to nearest road and town were extracted for fire locations throughout Scotland, as well as seasonal patterns for some cover types. Models were created by looking at the number of fires per 100 km2 and ranking the variables, as well as applying a logistic regression to the six Canadian FWI indices. There did not appear to be a direct relationship between the geographical variables extracted for the fire locations and the fire indices. The results looked more promising when land cover types were looked at individually during spring and during the summer separately, but are still inconclusive.